https://n2v.almanacnews.com/square/print/2018/01/10/experts-to-talk-quake-predictions-social-media-in-disasters


Town Square

Experts to talk quake predictions, social media in disasters

Original post made on Jan 10, 2018

The ground's brief 4.4-magnitude jolt on Jan. 4 was a reminder that Bay Area residents are sitting on top of a potential disaster.

Read the full story here Web Link posted Wednesday, January 10, 2018, 5:41 PM

Comments

Posted by What are the odds?
a resident of Woodside: other
on Jan 10, 2018 at 7:42 pm

Can they give the likelihood in the next 5-10 years? That would be so much more helpful than in 30 years, when half of us will be dead or gone elsewhere.

Let me make an unscientific estimate and translate the 72% in 30 years to 24% in the next 10 years. Is that in the right ball-park?

"The current forecast for the next 30 years is a 72 percent likelihood, or a 3-out-of-4 chance of a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake in the Bay Area. That would be comparable to the Loma Prieta earthquake."


Posted by Clunge
a resident of Menlo Park: The Willows
on Jan 12, 2018 at 10:44 am

What are the odds that there's a quake when the experts are having their function?
Seriously though, if they an predict them within a couple days advance that'd be good enough for all of the procrastinators to get their homes organized.
No pictures or bookcases within falling range of my bed, no chandelier to fall on my dinner guests - nothing of value in my almost red flagged garage that the City wont let me fix without fees and fines-- however, I'm a bit behind on the whole emergency food and water kit - so a days notice to get the Costco would be great.