There are still great unmet needs for infant and toddler care, but preschool level care is improving in San Mateo County, according to a new report from the San Mateo County Office of Education.

The 2022 Child Care Needs Assessment found that there is demand for 58,505 child care spaces in the county, including 53,574 spaces for residents and 4,930 spaces for non-resident employees working in San Mateo County. There is a shortage of 17,157 spots, meaning 29% of demand is going unmet. By 2032, unmet demand is expected to grow to 34%.

The majority of the shortage is in infant care, with only 34% of demand being met.

"I am cautiously optimistic," said Sarah Kinahan, coordinator of the Child Care Partnership Council, which is part of the county's Office of Education. She said the county rallied to support the child care sector during COVID-19, and that the pandemic highlighted how much families rely on child care centers in order to work.

"We have the will now," she said. "There's a spotlight on the issue."

Kinahan, who helped put the study together, noted that meeting the demand is expensive and a "deep problem."

Brion Economics prepared the study for the San Mateo County Office of Education, in partnership with the San Mateo County Child Care Partnership Council, First 5 San Mateo County, and the Silicon Valley Community Foundation. This report is based on a countywide study of child care needs for infants through 12-year-olds and is one part of a larger, countywide study that identifies current and future child care needs by city.

"This study gives us the data we need to both understand the scope of the problem and take action to address the critical shortage in child care spaces for the children of San Mateo County," said San Mateo County Superintendent of Schools Nancy Magee in a statement. For next steps, Magee said the county is already pulling together stakeholders to find ways to expand the child care workforce, and is appealing to local, state, and federal elected officials and philanthropic partners to increase investment in child care.

Child care services, by the numbers

There are a total of 1,009 providers in the county: 525 at-home day cares and 484 child care centers, with a total of 41,347 spaces.

Since 2017 there was a loss of 163 child care providers, or a 14% reduction. In total, there was a loss of 885 infant spaces (23% loss), 489 preschool spaces (3% loss), and an addition of 3,193 school age spaces (19% increase). This equates to an overall increase of 5% in total spaces over the last five years.

"At one point we thought we might lose half of the child care supply," Kinahan said. "Happily it wasn't as bad as we feared; a lot of that was the county gave several million dollars in support grants, the state provided stipends to licensed childcare programs. Without that, we would have seen a much greater loss."

For subsidized child care, only 4% of the demand is being met for infants in the county, compared to 52% for preschool and 21% for school-age children.

Workforce supply issues

The study found that a shortage of child care workers is the key factor for the shortage in child care slots. In 2022, there would have needed to be an additional 2,800 care providers to meet demand.

Low pay has made it difficult to fill these positions. Wages range from $20 per hour for teacher aides to $31 per hour for program directors. To meet the county's living wage of $36 to $52 per hour, child care employee wages would need to increase 65 to 127%, or up to $207 million annually.

Looking ahead

There are 27 new child care projects planned with 237 infant and 825 preschool spaces, for a total of 1,062 new child care openings for infants to 4-year-olds in the county. There are no known school age projects at this time.

This year, the state budget is funding transitional kindergarten (TK), including $690 million in per-pupil TK funding for the 2023-24 school year and $165 million in additional TK staff for next school year.

Read the full study at here.